Project Brief
Kenichiro Kaneko, Ellie Dafni, Jihyun Kim, Miran Jurisevic, Paul Phumchumphol(Me)
In the Prison and Probation Futures project, I explore how rehabilitation services could evolve by 2040 in collaboration with RCA Service Design and the UK Ministry of Justice. I analyze societal, technological, and global shifts to rethink justice, punishment, and reintegration.
With prisons operating at 99% capacity and reoffending costing £18.1 billion annually, I examine alternatives that move beyond incarceration. We design speculative future scenarios, identifying key offender cohorts and transformation areas such as education, community reintegration, and human rights.
Through service prototypes, We challenge existing models, envisioning a rehabilitation system that is humane, effective, and future-ready, fostering safer communities and reducing crime.
Speculative Service Design
Speculative Service Design is an approach where designers explore potential future services and experiences, often envisioning systems or concepts that don't yet exist. This approach encourages thinking beyond the constraints of the present and pushing boundaries. It often includes creating prototypes of these speculative services, exploring how they could function, and how they might shape human behavior, societal structures, or environments. The goal is to spark conversation and provoke thought about what services could look like in the future, helping organizations or individuals navigate upcoming trends and shifts in societal needs.
UK's Youth Justice System in 2024
The landscape of the UK youth justice system in 2024 reflects an ongoing struggle to balance punitive measures with rehabilitative approaches. While there is a shift toward restorative justice and diversion programs, young people continue to face significant challenges within the system. Efforts to reduce the reliance on custodial sentences are ongoing, with a greater emphasis on community-based alternatives, such as education, mentorship, and social reintegration programs.
However, the system still grapples with high rates of youth incarceration, often for relatively minor offenses, contributing to overcrowding in detention facilities. This overcrowding can lead to poor conditions, lack of access to effective rehabilitation, and increased recidivism. Mental health issues, trauma, and socio-economic factors are often underlying causes of youth offending, but the system still struggles to adequately address these needs within detention centers.
For over 30 years, the UK youth justice system has seen a troubling pattern where first-time offenders who commit crimes at the age of 16 are often imprisoned by the time they reach 24. This cycle has become a harsh reality for many young people, with the system routinely opting for custodial sentences rather than rehabilitation or alternatives. Despite calls for reform, young offenders who enter the system at 16 find themselves incarcerated for years, exacerbating the very issues mental health struggles, lack of education, and socio-economic disadvantages that led them to offend in the first place.
By the time these individuals turn 24, they are often deeply entrenched in the justice system, facing the long-term consequences of early imprisonment. The lack of support, rehabilitation, and educational opportunities within detention centers leaves them ill-equipped to reintegrate into society, perpetuating a cycle of reoffending. This pattern has persisted for decades, with the system's reliance on imprisonment rather than addressing root causes remaining a consistent issue.
Several key factors contribute to the ongoing challenges within the UK youth justice system, leading to high reoffending rates and over-representation of vulnerable youth.
Firstly, educational disengagement plays a significant role, with around 11% of students from lower school backgrounds disproportionately entering the youth justice system. Many of these young people face academic struggles, truancy, and behavioral issues, often leading to their involvement in crime due to a lack of support and opportunities.
Secondly, a significant proportion of offenders come from the children in care system, where instability and trauma make young people more vulnerable to criminal behavior. The absence of a stable family environment and support network increases the likelihood of involvement in crime and eventual entry into the justice system.
The rise in first-time entrants up 1% in recent years also contributes to the issue. Factors such as family breakdowns, peer pressure, and socio-economic disadvantages push these young individuals into the system, often leading to harsher sentencing without addressing the root causes of their actions.
Lastly, the high reoffending rate of 31.4% underscores the failure of the current system. Without effective rehabilitation, mental health support, and community reintegration programs, young offenders continue to cycle through the justice system, perpetuating criminal behavior.
The fragmentation and siloed nature of agencies within the UK youth justice system create significant barriers to developing trust between young offenders and the institutions meant to support them. Different agencies, including social services, education, mental health services, and the justice system itself, often operate independently, leading to inconsistent support and a lack of coordinated care. This disjointed approach can cause confusion, frustration, and a sense of abandonment among young people, who may feel like they are being passed between departments without clear guidance or understanding.
For many youths, this fragmentation contributes to resentment toward the system. They may feel targeted or unfairly treated by an impersonal and bureaucratic structure, leading to a breakdown in trust. When different professionals or agencies contradict each other or fail to communicate effectively, it sends the message that their well-being is not a priority.
Signal of Changes - Horizon Scanning
Horizontal scanning refers to the process of exploring and analyzing trends, patterns, or weak signals across multiple sectors, industries, or disciplines , rather than focusing solely on one area of expertise. It involves gathering insights from a variety of sources to identify emerging developments, shifts in behavior, and potential disruptions that may not yet be fully recognized but could have significant implications in the future.
We look beyond the immediate scope of justice, law enforcement, or social services to incorporate insights from related fields such as education, mental health, technology, and community engagement. By considering how these areas interact, it becomes easier to spot early-stage trends or "weak signals" subtle, often overlooked indicators of change that can be important in shaping future policies or interventions.
John Rawls' idea that "ethics evolve over time" speaks to the dynamic nature of moral and ethical frameworks in society . This quote emphasizes that ethical principles are not static; they shift and adapt as societal values, understanding, and contexts evolve. When applying this idea to the process of horizontal scanning, it suggests that the way we approach emerging trends, weak signals, and the problems within systems like the youth justice system must be flexible and responsive to changing ethical standards over time.
In the context of horizontal scanning, this perspective encourages us to track not only observable trends but also shifts in societal norms, values, and ethics that may influence future developments. For instance, the increasing focus on restorative justice or rehabilitation in the youth justice system reflects a shift in ethical thinking from retribution to rehabilitation. Ethical frameworks that prioritize human dignity, equality, and social justice may push institutions to evolve in their approach, moving away from punitive measures and toward restorative, community-based solutions.
This idea can dictate how we scan for weak signals by actively looking for signs of evolving ethical perspectives. Are there subtle movements in public opinion, policy discussions, or cultural shifts indicating that society is moving toward more equitable or restorative practices?
Signal Scanning - We gathered over 150 signals cover various areas.
Signal Scanning Workshop
We combine driver mapping and the Three Horizons framework to explore future trends and challenges, particularly within the youth justice system. By mapping key drivers that influence current systems, we identify emerging transitions and potential shifts. We use Horizon 1 to analyze the present state of the system, Horizon 2 to explore emerging trends and changes over the next 3-10 years, and Horizon 3 to envision long-term, transformative shifts. This approach allows us to anticipate future challenges and opportunities, ensuring that the solutions we design are adaptable, forward-looking, and aligned with evolving ethical standards.
Our Workshop on 3 Horizon
In our approach, we also draw inspiration from "How to Future," particularly the concept of "pulling threads." This idea encourages us to follow emerging signals and trace their connections across various domains, helping us to uncover deeper insights and hidden patterns. By pulling these threads, we gain a more nuanced understanding of how small changes in one area, such as shifts in societal values or technological advancements, can influence larger systems like youth justice. This method allows us to map out interconnected trends and anticipate how they might converge , enabling us to design more proactive, holistic solutions that address both immediate needs and long-term transformations.
What Future Look Like - Scenario
A future scenario is a narrative that outlines a possible future outcome based on current trends, emerging signals, and speculative factors. It helps us imagine what might happen in the future by considering various possibilities and exploring the implications of those possibilities . A future scenario is not a prediction, but rather a way to explore potential outcomes based on the understanding that the future is uncertain and shaped by a range of factors.
Future Wheel Workshop
After pulling threads and identifying emerging signals, we further speculate on potential future outcomes using the Future Wheel framework. The Future Wheel is a visual tool that helps map out the possible consequences of a particular change or event, helping us explore both direct and indirect impacts.
The process begins with identifying a key event or trend like a shift towards restorative justice in the youth justice system. From there, we identify the immediate, first-order effects, such as changes in sentencing practices or the rehabilitation process. These are the direct consequences of the shift. Next, we expand to explore second-order effects, which are more indirect but still significant, such as how this shift might impact community relationships, perceptions of justice, or youth recidivism rates. Finally, we consider third-order effects, which are even more speculative but can have far-reaching implications, like changes in societal attitudes toward crime, rehabilitation, and justice, or the creation of new social support systems for offenders.
By using the Future Wheel, we can envision a range of potential outcomes and develop a more robust understanding of how different trends and drivers might shape the future of systems like youth justice. It allows us to see not just what could happen, but how it could ripple out into various sectors, helping us design more adaptable and future-proof strategies.
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Scenario Draft
In our approach, we recognize that youth offending cannot be understood in isolation from the broader systems that shape young people’s lives. To create a more comprehensive view of how youth offenders may evolve, we develop multiple scenarios that span beyond the justice system, considering factors like family , education, city, and society.
We explore how changes in family structures and support systems, such as better mental health services or more positive parenting approaches, could either mitigate or exacerbate youth offending. In the education system, we examine how improvements in early intervention, mental health support, or alternative learning models might reduce the chances of youth entering the justice system.
The urban environment also plays a crucial role, and we look at how changes in city design—such as safer spaces, more community programs, or greater youth engagement—could positively impact youth behavior. Finally, we consider society and the role of restorative justice, community-led rehabilitation, and evolving social attitudes toward crime.
By developing these interconnected scenarios, we gain a clearer picture of the factors influencing youth offenders and identify opportunities for cross-sector interventions, ultimately creating more holistic and adaptable solutions for the future.
People in The Future
A future persona is a tool used in strategic design and foresight to create a vivid and detailed representation of a potential individual or group in the future. These personas are based on current trends, emerging signals, and speculative insights about how society might evolve. They help us understand the needs, behaviors, challenges, and aspirations of future individuals or groups, guiding the design of systems, products, or services that can better address those future realities.
By creating these future personas, we can humanize and personalize potential futures, making them more relatable and grounded in real experiences. This approach helps us design systems, policies, and interventions that not only address current issues but also anticipate and meet the needs of future generations.
Define
After developing future personas and exploring potential scenarios, we move into the "Define" stage, where we combine our understanding of the current system with the insights gained from future scenarios to create a clear and actionable problem statement. This stage is crucial as it focuses on framing the challenge we aim to address, ensuring that we consider both the existing system's limitations and the emerging opportunities.
In this phase, we integrate our findings from the current state of the youth justice system such as the issues of over-incarceration, fragmented services, and the lack of effective rehabilitation with the potential future shifts outlined in our scenarios.
The problem statement will then serve as a guiding focus for the design process, ensuring that we are addressing real, pressing issues while also staying aligned with the future possibilities we've envisioned. By combining both the present and future insights, we ensure that the solutions we develop are both grounded in reality and flexible enough to evolve with the changing landscape of youth justice. This approach sets the stage for ideation, where creative solutions can begin to take shape.
We also develop a future vision as a preferable future, representing an ideal scenario we strive to achieve. This vision is essential because it serves as a guiding framework, helping us navigate the complexities of the present system while keeping long-term goals in focus.
A preferable future is important for several reasons:
Direction and Purpose: It offers a clear, motivating picture of what we hope the youth justice system will look like in the future, aligning all efforts toward a common goal. This vision helps ensure that design work is focused and purposeful. Inspiration and Innovation: Imagining a better future encourages creativity and innovation, allowing us to think beyond current limitations. It opens up possibilities for transformative changes in justice systems, moving from punitive measures to rehabilitation and community-driven models. Stakeholder Alignment: A shared vision brings together all involved parties, from policymakers to community members, around a unified goal. It promotes collaboration and ensures that everyone is working toward the same outcome. Long-term Impact: This future vision helps us anticipate and address future challenges, ensuring that the solutions we create are not only relevant today but also sustainable and impactful in the long run. By defining a preferable future, we set the stage for impactful, forward-thinking design.
In our approach, we emphasize the need for immediate intervention after a young person’s first-time entry into the youth justice system. Currently, many policies and schemes are reactive, intervening only after criminality has escalated to more serious levels. By waiting until offenses worsen, the system misses critical opportunities to address the underlying cause s of offending and prevent further harm.
Immediate intervention is crucial because early experiences in the justice system significantly impact a young person’s future. If we act swiftly after the first offense, we can provide timely support through rehabilitation, education, and mental health services, helping to break the cycle of reoffending before it deepens. Delayed responses allow for criminal behavior to become more entrenched, leading to harsher penalties and long-term consequences that could have been prevented.
By shifting focus to early intervention, we create a system that is more proactive, emphasizing prevention rather than punishment. This approach would not only reduce reoffending rates but also improve outcomes for young people, giving them a chance to reform and reintegrate into society before their actions spiral into more serious criminal behavior. In doing so, we prioritize rehabilitation and long-term success over short-term punitive measures.
Key Challenge for first entrants Fear and Trauma:First-time offenders, especially younger ones, often experience shock, anxiety, and fear when encountering the legal system. The court process, police custody, and probation meetings can be intimidating and confusing. Stigma & Shame:Many internalize negative labels (e.g., "criminal," "bad kid"), leading to low self-esteem and disengagement. Families and communities may also treat them differently, leading to isolation. Mistrust of Authorities:Many young people already distrust police, social workers, or probation officers. They may view interventions as punishment rather than support, making engagement harder. Lack of human interaction:More digital activity in daily life led to being sheltered and social awkwardness. Develop deeper trust issue when get into the system.
Hypothesis
To guide our intervention strategy, we develop a Theory of Change framework, beginning with hypothesis stacks. This process helps us systematically map out the necessary steps, assumptions, and expected outcomes for achieving our desired change, particularly in the context of early intervention in the youth justice system.
These hypotheses form the foundation of our Theory of Change, guiding the design and evaluation of early intervention strategies. By testing and refining these hypotheses, we can create a more effective system that breaks the cycle of criminality early and fosters rehabilitation and reintegration rather than escalation and punishment.
Final Design
In a future where AI-driven justice and digital rehabilitation replace human connection, Turning Point is a bold intervention. This intensive, trust-based mentorship program prioritizes real-world interaction over virtual solutions, ensuring that youth offenders experience genuine human support instead of automated systems.
Unlike traditional programs that rely on standardized curriculum, and digital tracking, Turning Point focuses on Personalized offline activities and learning generated by standardized modules using matrix crossover method to develop personalization under limited resources along with face-to-face mentorship.
Each participant is paired with a trusted mentor, guiding them through four key proposition:
This approach challenges the over-reliance on digital solutions and proves that human connection is irreplaceable in rehabilitation. Turning Point helps youth offenders rebuild trust, discover their potential, and reintegrate into society through real people, real experiences, and real change.
Trust-based mentorship is a long-term, relationship-driven approach where the mentor focuses on building deep trust and personal connection with the mentee rather than just offering formal guidance or transactional support.
Unlike traditional mentorship programs that are goal-driven (e.g., employment, education) or authority-driven (e.g., caseworkers, probation officers), trust-based mentorship is youth-centered, emphasizing emotional connection, stability, and lived-experience guidance.
While mentorship and buddy-style programs do exist in various forms in the UK justice system. However, most existing models are either short-term, fragmented, or focus on specific issues like gang exit strategies or substance abuse recovery. If your idea is to create a holistic, trust-based mentorship system that truly sticks with young offenders long-term, then it could fill gaps that current programs don't fully address.
Mentors will play a critical role in helping first-time youth offenders overcome fear & trauma, stigma, and mistrust in a world shaped by AI-driven justice and digital vigilantism. The right mentors must be relatable, consistent, and trustworthy.
The Buddy System is a trust-based mentorship program designed to support first-time youth offenders while ensuring their safety through strict safeguarding measures. It complies with UK safeguarding laws, including the Children Act 1989 & 2004, Keeping Children Safe in Education (KCSIE, 2023), and Working Together to Safeguard Children (2023).
To ensure mentor reliability and ethical engagement, all mentors undergo enhanced DBS checks, safeguarding training, and professional oversight. The program maintains strict boundaries—no private meetings, personal financial assistance, or social media contact. Mentor-mentee communication is supervised, and all disclosures related to abuse, exploitation, or criminal activity are escalated through formal safeguarding pathways.
The system integrates multi-agency collaboration, with regular check-ins between Youth Offending Teams (YOTs), social services, and probation officers. Structured public meetings, monitored communication, and feedback loops ensure accountability and risk prevention.
By combining trust-building with safeguarding compliance, the Buddy System provides a secure, ethical, and effective mentorship model, reducing reoffending while ensuring youth safety and rehabilitation.
Building trust in a short period is challenging, especially for first-time justice system entrants, who may be skeptical of authority figures and interventions. However, trust-based mentorship doesn’t require years, it can be established quickly with the right approach.
Trust isn’t built just because someone is "relatable" or "shows up." Many first-time justice-involved youth have been let down before, and some might actively reject help. A trust-based buddy system can't just be hopeful—it needs to be built for reality.
Expect skepticism. It’s normal for young people to reject the buddy at first don’t take it personally. Prove reliability over time, even when they push back. Show up, but don’t smother them. Let them dictate the pace. If they ignore you for weeks, don’t force engagement just stay present. Keep boundaries firm. Being a mentor isn’t about being a “friend” it’s about being a steady, supportive figure even when they make mistakes. Accept that some youth won’t engage, and that’s okay. The goal isn’t to save everyone it’s to be available when they’re ready.
The program follows a structured, intensive 1-3 month journey, designed to support youth offenders in rebuilding their lives through human connection, self-reflection, and real-world engagement.
1. Stability & Support – The first step ensures that basic needs such as housing, healthcare, and emotional well-being are met. Each participant receives personalized support, laying the foundation for a stable future before deeper rehabilitation begins.
2. Reflection & Accountability – Through guided workshops and mental health support, participants reflect on their past actions, the impact of their crimes, and the harm caused to victims. This stage fosters self-awareness, accountability, and emotional growth.
3. Future Vision & Goal Setting – In envision workshops, participants explore career paths, develop life goals, and build skills that align with their aspirations. This helps them shift focus from their past mistakes to their future potential.
4. Community Reintegration – Finally, participants apply their newly developed skills in real-world settings, engaging in community projects, apprenticeships, and work placements to rebuild trust and reintegrate into society.
By combining personalized support, human mentorship, and hands-on experience , this intensive program empowers youth offenders to break the cycle of crime and take control of their futures.
Psychological Theories Supporting the Rehabilitation Model 1. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs (1943) – Addressing Basic Needs First
Stability must come before rehabilitation (food, shelter, healthcare). Ensuring basic needs are met reduces desperation-driven reoffending. 2. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) & Moral Reconation Therapy (MRT) – Reflection & Accountability
Helps offenders recognize their actions, process trauma, and shift criminal thinking patterns. Increases empathy and reduces impulsivity, preventing reoffending. 3. Hope Theory (Snyder, 1991) – Future Planning & Goal Setting
Encourages clear goal-setting and motivation, helping youth see a path beyond crime. Strengthens self-efficacy and future-oriented thinking. 4. Desistance Theory (Maruna, 2001) – Community Reintegration & Identity Shift
Offenders are more likely to reform if they develop a positive self-identity. Applying skills in real-world settings creates social belonging and purpose.
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The Theory of Change (ToC) is a framework used to map out how specific actions or interventions lead to desired outcomes, providing a clear pathway from current challenges to future success. It’s a way of articulating the process of change by identifying key steps, assumptions, and expected impacts. The ToC framework helps organizations or initiatives design effective strategies, monitor progress, and evaluate results by outlining a logical progression of activities and outcomes.
In our context, the Theory of Change for youth justice focuses on creating a proactive, early intervention system that prevents young people from escalating into more serious criminal behavior. The ToC begins with the assumption that early intervention such as providing support services immediately after a first-time offense—can prevent further criminality and reduce the long-term impact of youth offending.
Backcasting
Instead of waiting until the 2040 scenario unfolds, we can take proactive steps today to shape the future of youth justice. Backcasting is a strategic planning tool that works in reverse; it starts with defining a preferred future and then maps out the actions needed today to make that future a reality. This approach allows us to break down long-term goals into actionable steps, focusing on creating real change in the present that will lead to the desired future outcomes.
In the case of the Ministry of Justice (MoJ), instead of waiting for an ideal youth justice system to emerge by 2040, we can begin now by implementing a roadmap of interventions that build toward this future. The first step would be focusing on rehabilitation for young offenders , rather than relying solely on punitive measures. Immediate action can include investing in restorative justice programs, mental health services, and educational opportunities that target youth early, as soon as they enter the justice system.
In parallel, we need to work on building trust and understanding within society. This includes fostering greater empathy toward young offenders, emphasizing rehabilitation over punishment, and creating community-based support systems. Society’s attitudes toward crime and punishment must evolve, and this change can begin today through public education campaigns, community engagement, and systemic reforms that highlight the value of rehabilitation.
By using backcasting, the MoJ can create a clear roadmap that doesn’t wait for future changes but instead catalyzes action now . This will lead to a more just, rehabilitative, and compassionate system for young people, aligning today’s efforts with the preferred future we want to create by 2040.
Dr. Spock’s quote, “Kids don’t need perfect adults; they need compassionate ones to show them how to grow,” beautifully encapsulates the essence of what the youth justice system should aspire to be. In the context of our work, it reminds us that young people, especially those who have made mistakes, do not need to be met with perfection or judgment. Instead, they need compassion—a system that offers them support, guidance, and understanding as they navigate difficult circumstances and seek to grow.
The youth justice system must be one that teaches, nurtures, and reforms, rather than one that punishes or abandons. By fostering an environment where compassion and understanding are at the forefront, we can create a system that allows young people to learn from their mistakes, grow stronger, and reintegrate into society. It’s not about perfection, but about creating opportunities for growth, learning, and redemption. Just as a compassionate adult shows a child how to navigate the complexities of life, a compassionate justice system can guide youth offenders toward better futures, breaking cycles of criminality and creating a society that values rehabilitation over retribution.
